Abstract

This paper is a study of the history of the transplant of mathematical tools using negative feedback for macroeconomic stabilisation policy from 1948 to 1975 and the subsequent break of the use of control for stabilisation policy which occurred from 1975 to 1993. New-classical macroeconomists selected a subset of the tools of control that favoured their support of rules against discretionary stabilisation policy. The Lucas critique and Kydland and Prescott’s time-inconsistency were over-statements that led to the “dark ages” of the prevalence of the stabilisation-policy-ineffectiveness idea. These over-statements were later revised following the success of the Taylor rule.

摘要

本文研究了从1948年至1975年使用负反馈进行宏观经济稳定政策的数学工具的移植历史，以及随后在1975年至1993年发生的将控制用于稳定政策的中断。新古典宏观经济学家选择了控制工具的子集，它们支持对任意裁量稳定政策的规则支持。卢卡斯的批评，凯德兰和普雷斯科特的时间不一致是夸大其词的陈述，导致稳定政策无效观念盛行的“黑暗时代”。泰勒规则获得成功后，对这些夸大的陈述进行了修订。