While prior econometric forecasting models focus on either macroeconomic or territorial aspects as drivers of regional growth, the fourth version of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST4) model merges these two conceptual approaches to regional growth. Mechanisms of territorial complexity governing regional development theories, like agglomeration economies, or structural changes in innovation modes, are included into a formal model so that they simultaneously activate regional growth and mediate macroeconomic growth impacts. Moreover, a longer time series than in previous versions of the MASST model now allows to take account of the structural changes taking place in EU economies as a consequence of the recent crisis. The model now also models the effects of the decrease in EU integration stemming from populistic waves in politics taking place in EU countries. The paper also presents an application of the MASST model to a reference scenario.

虽然先前的计量经济学预测模型关注宏观经济或地区方面作为区域增长的驱动力，但宏观经济，部门，社会，地区模型（MASST4）的第四个版本将这两种概念性方法合并为区域增长。治理区域发展理论的区域复杂性机制，例如集聚经济或创新模式的结构变化，已包含在正式模型中，以便它们同时激活区域增长并调解宏观经济增长的影响。而且，比以前的MASST模型版本更长的时间序列现在可以考虑到由于最近的危机导致欧盟经济体发生的结构性变化。该模型现在还模拟了由于欧盟国家中发生的民粹主义政治浪潮而导致的欧盟一体化减少的影响。本文还介绍了MASST模型在参考方案中的应用。