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Does overconfidence pay off when things go well? CEO overconfidence, firm performance, and the business cycle
Strategic Organization ( IF 3.506 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-24 , DOI: 10.1177/1476127020930659
Tomas Reyes 1 , Roberto S Vassolo 2 , Edgar E Kausel , Diamela Peña Torres 1 , Stephen Zhang 3
Affiliation  

We investigate the moderating effect of the business cycle on the positive relationship between CEO overconfidence and firm performance. We propose that the expansion years of the business cycle enhance the positive impact of overconfident CEOs on firms’ performance. However, this effect is reduced during recession periods. We analyze the effect of CEO overconfidence on the Return on Equity of publicly listed US firms from 1992 to 2015, a period that includes the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001 and the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The empirical findings support the hypotheses that expansion periods increase the positive relationship between overconfident CEOs and firms’ performance, but this positive effect weakens during recessions.



中文翻译:

当事情进展顺利时,过度自信会有所回报吗?CEO过度自信,公司绩效和业务周期

我们调查了商业周期对首席执行官过度自信与公司绩效之间的正向关系的调节作用。我们建议,商业周期的扩展年可以增强过度自信的首席执行官对公司绩效的积极影响。但是,在衰退时期这种影响会减弱。我们分析了CEO过度自信对1992年至2015年美国上市公司股权回报率的影响,这段时期包括2001年互联网泡沫破裂和2008-2009年大萧条。实证结果支持以下假设,即扩张期会增加过度自信的首席执行官与企业绩效之间的正相关关系,但这种积极影响在衰退期间会减弱。

更新日期:2020-06-24
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