We document how, over 1996–2008, large capital inflows in Southern Europe coincided with broad-based growth of the nontradable sector, extending beyond the construction and real estate sectors. We then present a tractable two-sector, two-region (‘North’ and ‘South’) model of a monetary union, in which we show how the sharp, permanent, fall in Southern real interest rates that occurred in the run-up to EMU can explain the Southern consumption boom, wage growth, growth of the nontradable sector, and deteriorating external position. Upward pressure on the EMU-wide interest rate induces an opposite process in North. Consequently, both real exchange rates and external positions of the two regions diverge. Including a third country with a flexible exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro amplifies the effects of monetary integration in South, while dampening them in North. We confirm the key model predictions using a panel-BVAR for the euro area and investigates various policy reforms to facilitate the ongoing rebalancing process in the eurozone.

中文翻译：

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动车组的部门分配和宏观经济失衡

我们记录了在1996-2008年间，南欧大量资本流入与非贸易部门基础广泛的增长同时发生的情况，该增长不仅限于建筑和房地产领域。然后，我们提出了一个货币联盟的易于处理的两部门，两区域（“北部”和“南部”）模型，在该模型中，我们展示了在升级过程中发生的南部实际利率急剧，永久性下降的情况。 EMU可以解释南方的消费繁荣，工资增长，非贸易部门的增长以及外部状况的恶化。整个欧洲货币联盟利率的上升压力在北部引发了相反的过程。因此，这两个区域的实际汇率和外部头寸都有所不同。包括相对于欧元具有灵活汇率的第三国，将扩大南部货币一体化的影响，同时在北方使它们湿润。我们使用BVAR小组对欧元区的主要模型预测进行了确认，并调查了各种政策改革以促进欧元区正在进行的再平衡过程。