Abstract

The paper develops the concept of a rising invisible majority and explores the interconnections between the political economy context and the changing composition of European society. The concept illustrates how the transition from the Fordist to the neoliberal phase of capitalism is leading to a similar – if differently paced – transformation of the social composition across Europe. The material basis of the ‘invisibility’ manifests itself in a structural increase of unemployment, labour market precarization, and poverty. ‘Invisibility’ makes growing segments of the population less likely to participate in the institutions that regulate social life, while mainstream parties and trade unions no longer represent them adequately in the public arena. We suggest this trend will continue, and eventually concern a majority of the population, unless the neoliberal mechanisms of regulation are slowed or reversed. Enriching Polanyi’s double movement logic, we hypothesise the existence of feedback effects from this transformation of the social composition to the political economy context that could lead to countermovements. Our reasoning is systematised in an analytical framework, complemented with a historical analysis of the Italian case, and a quantitative measurement of the magnitude of this transformation across 14 European countries.

摘要

本文发展了不断上升的无形多数的概念，并探讨了政治经济背景与欧洲社会不断变化的构成之间的相互联系。这一概念说明了从福特主义到资本主义新自由主义阶段的转变如何导致整个欧洲的社会构成发生类似的——如果不同的——转变。“隐形”的物质基础表现为失业、劳动力市场不稳定和贫困的结构性增加。“隐形”使越来越多的人口不太可能参与规范社会生活的机构，而成为主流政党和工会不再在公共场合充分代表他们。我们认为，除非新自由主义的监管机制放缓或逆转，否则这种趋势将继续下去，并最终影响到大多数人口。丰富波兰尼的双重运动逻辑，我们假设从社会构成到政治经济背景的这种转变中存在可能导致反运动的反馈效应。我们的推理在一个分析框架中系统化，辅以对意大利案例的历史分析，以及对 14 个欧洲国家这种转变幅度的定量测量。