Major climate-cum-energy policies and respective impact projections rest on the widespread belief that increased energy efficiency can be equated with savings in energy use and emissions. This belief is flawed. Due to the rebound effect emissions savings from energy efficiency improvements will be generally less than what is technically feasible, or even be reversed. By means of an analytical general equilibrium model we demonstrate the latter to be true in a case that is both stark and relevant: if electricity generation is subject to a cap-and-trade scheme with partial coverage, increased efficiency of electric devices leads unambiguously to increased carbon emissions. The result implies that a proper distinction between the energy rebound and the carbon rebound is warranted, and that public policy must carefully consider the interactions between energy efficiency promotion and carbon pricing.

主要的气候和能源政策以及各自的影响预测都建立在普遍的信念上，即提高能源效率可以等同于节省能源使用和排放。这种信念是有缺陷的。由于回弹效应，提高能效所节省的排放量通常少于技术上可行的排放量，甚至是可以逆转的。通过分析的一般均衡模型，我们证明了后者在既刻薄又相关的情况下是正确的：如果发电受制于部分覆盖的总量控制和交易计划，则电气设备的效率无疑将导致增加碳排放量。结果表明，能量回弹和碳之间有适当的区别 反弹是必要的，公共政策必须仔细考虑能效促进与碳定价之间的相互作用。