We add endogenous labour supply to exogenous population growth in an Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model with international capital movements. Under non-linearity from a decreasing marginal product of labour in education and a positive human capital externality in output production, a combination of an estimated debt-interest relation and a realistic calibration of the model shows the following. (i) The demographic dividends from a fall in the population growth rate increase welfare in the short run and reduce it in the long run. (ii) A higher (lower) growth rate of the dependency ratio leads to a higher (lower) optimal level of education and technical change. (iii) Lower past cumulated savings lead to a higher foreign-debt/GDP ratio, higher interest rates, more education time and technical change, and more consumption in the future rather than the present. (iv) A higher depreciation rate of human capital through ageing has a stronger impact on growth rates than all other variables that could be associated with ageing and a good mitigating policy is to spend more time on education.

在国际资本流动的Uzawa-Lucas内生增长模型中，我们将内生劳动力供给添加到外生人口增长中。在教育劳动力边际产品减少和产出生产中人力资本外部性为正的非线性情况下，估计的债务－利益关系与模型的实际校准相结合，可以得出以下结论。（i）人口增长率下降带来的人口红利在短期内增加福利，从长远来看减少福利。（ii）抚养比率的较高（较低）增长率导致最佳的教育和技术变革水平（较低）。（iii）过去积累的储蓄减少导致外债/国内生产总值比率增加，利率增加，教育时间和技术变革增加，而且未来的消费量要多于现在。（iv）与衰老可能相关的所有其他变量相比，由于老龄化而导致的更高的人力资本贬值率对增长率的影响更大，而一项好的缓解政策是将更多的时间花在教育上。