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Global macroeconomic cooperation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: a roadmap for the G20 and the IMF
Oxford Review of Economic Policy ( IF 6.326 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-29 , DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/graa032
Warwick McKibbin 1, 2 , David Vines 3, 4
Affiliation  

Abstract
The COVID-19 crisis has caused the greatest collapse in global economic activity since 1720. Some advanced countries have mounted a massive fiscal response, both to pay for disease-fighting action and to preserve the incomes of firms and workers until the economic recovery is under way. But there are many emerging market economies which have been prevented from doing what is needed by their high existing levels of public debt and—especially—by the external financial constraints which they face. We argue in the present paper that there is a need for international cooperation to allow such countries to undertake the kind of massive fiscal response that all countries now need, and that many advanced countries have been able to carry out. We show what such cooperation would involve. We use a global macroeconomic model to explore how extraordinarily beneficial such cooperation would be. Simulations of the model suggest that GDP in the countries in which extra fiscal support takes place would be around two and a half per cent higher in the first year, and that GDP in other countries in the world be more than one per cent higher. So far, such cooperation has been notably lacking, in striking contrast with what happened in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. The necessary cooperation needs to be led by the Group of Twenty (G20), just as happened in 2008–9, since the G20 brings together the leaders of the world’s largest economies. This cooperation must also necessarily involve a promise of international financial support from the International Monetary Fund, otherwise international financial markets might take fright at the large budget deficits and current account deficits which will emerge, creating fiscal crises and currency crises and so causing such expansionary policies which we advocate to be brought to an end.


中文翻译:

应对COVID-19大流行的全球宏观经济合作:G20和IMF的路线图

摘要
自1720年以来,COVID-19危机已成为全球经济活动中最大的崩溃。一些先进国家已采取了大规模的财政对策,以支付抗击疾病的费用并保持企业和工人的收入,直到经济复苏不景气为止。道路。但是,许多新兴市场经济体由于其现有的高水平公共债务,尤其是由于其所面临的外部财务限制,无法开展所需的工作。我们在本文中认为,有必要进行国际合作,以使这些国家能够采取所有国家现在都需要的大规模财政应对措施,而且许多先进​​国家已经能够开展这项工作。我们展示了这种合作将涉及什么。我们使用全球宏观经济模型来探索这种合作将有多大的益处。该模型的模拟表明,在获得额外财政支持的国家中,第一年的国内生产总值将增长约百分之二点五,而世界其他国家的国内生产总值则将增长百分之一以上。迄今为止,与2008年全球金融危机之后发生的情况形成鲜明对比的是,这种合作尤为缺乏。必要的合作需要由二十国集团(G20)牵头,就像2008–9年那样,因为二十国集团(G20)召集了世界上最大经济体的领导人。这种合作还必须包括国际货币基金组织对国际金融支持的承诺,
更新日期:2020-08-29
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