This paper critiques the so-called “Green Revolution” as a political myth of averted famine. A “political myth,” among other functions, reflects a narrative structure that characterizes understandings of causality between policy action and outcome. As such, the details of a particular political myth elevate certain policy options (and families of policy options) over others. One important narrative strand of the political myths of the Green Revolution is a story of averted famine: in the 1950s and 1960s, scientists predicted a global crisis to emerge in the 1970s and beyond, created by a rapidly growing global population that would cause global famine as food supplies would not keep up with demand. The narrative posits that an intense period of technological innovation in agricultural productivity led to increasing crop yields which led to more food being produced, and the predicted crisis thus being averted. The fact that the world did not experience a global famine in the 1970s is cited as evidence in support of the narrative. Political myths need not necessarily be supported by evidence, but to the extent that they shape understandings of cause and effect in policymaking, political myths which are not grounded in evidence risk misleading policymakers and the public. We argue a political myth of the Green Revolution focused on averted famine is not well grounded in evidence and thus has potential to mislead to the extent it guides thinking and action related to technological innovation. We recommend an alternative narrative: The Green Evolution, in which sustainable improvements in agricultural productivity did not necessarily avert a global famine, but nonetheless profoundly shaped the modern world. More broadly, we argue that one of the key functions of the practice of technology assessment is to critique and to help create the political myths that preserve an evidence-grounded basis for connecting the cause and effect of policy action and practical outcomes.

中文翻译：

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从绿色革命到绿色进化：对避免饥荒的政治神话的批判

本文批评所谓的“绿色革命”是避免饥荒的政治神话。除其他功能外，“政治神话”反映了一种叙述结构，该结构表征了对政策行动与结果之间因果关系的理解。因此，特定政治神话的细节将某些政策选择（和政策选择系列）提升到其他政策选择之上。绿色革命政治神话的一个重要叙事线索是避免饥荒的故事：在 1950 年代和 1960 年代，科学家预测全球危机将在 1970 年代及以后出现，由迅速增长的全球人口造成，将导致全球饥荒因为食品供应跟不上需求。叙述假设农业生产力技术创新的密集时期导致作物产量增加，从而导致生产更多粮食，从而避免了预测的危机。世界在 1970 年代没有经历全球饥荒的事实被引用作为支持这种说法的证据。政治神话不一定有证据支持，但如果它们在决策过程中形成对因果关系的理解，则没有证据基础的政治神话有误导决策者和公众的风险。我们认为，关注避免饥荒的绿色革命的政治神话并没有充分的证据基础，因此有可能在指导与技术创新相关的思考和行动方面产生误导。我们推荐另一种叙述：绿色进化，其中农业生产力的可持续提高不一定能避免全球饥荒，但仍然深刻地塑造了现代世界。更广泛地说，我们认为技术评估实践的关键功能之一是批判并帮助创造政治神话，这些神话保留了将政策行动的因果关系与实际结果联系起来的循证基础。