Non-ability-based confidence is one of the most pervasive human psychological biases. It is a part of a family of confidence judgments, including overconfidence and metacognitive calibration accuracy, defined by a discrepancy between self-perception of ability and actual ability. Across many domains, most people exhibit some degree of miscalibration in their confidence. Some people may be overconfident and others are underconfident. Despite the prevalence of non-ability-based confidence, relatively little research has investigated how non-ability-based confidence develops and why some people are more or less confident than others despite sharing the same level of ability. We use a longitudinal dataset to explore the childhood predictors of adolescent non-ability-based confidence. Achievement growth in math and reading in childhood was modeled and used to predict adolescent non-ability-based confidence in math and reading. Results show that the initial level of achievement predicts lower non-ability-based confidence in math. On the other hand, a faster rate of achievement growth across childhood predicts greater non-ability-based confidence in reading. These results highlight how previous experiences inform people's self-perceptions over and above their true abilities. Discussion focuses on the factors that shape non-ability-based confidence over the lifespan and the limitations of the current findings.

非基于能力的自信是最普遍的人类心理偏见之一。它是信心判断家族的一部分，包括过度自信和元认知校准准确性，由能力的自我认知与实际能力之间的差异定义。在许多领域中，大多数人都表现出一定程度的信心失衡。有些人可能过度自信，而另一些人则缺乏自信。尽管非基于能力的自信盛行，但相对较少的研究调查了非基于能力的自信是如何发展的，以及为什么尽管拥有相同的能力水平，有些人还是比其他人或多或少自信。我们使用纵向数据集来探索青少年非基于能力的信心的童年预测因素。对儿童时期数学和阅读的成就增长进行建模，并用于预测青少年对数学和阅读的非基于能力的信心。结果表明，最初的成就水平预示着对数学的非基于能力的信心较低。另一方面，整个童年时期更快的成就增长速度预示着更大的非基于能力的阅读信心。这些结果强调了以前的经历如何影响人们的自我认知，而不是他们的真实能力。讨论的重点是在整个生命周期内塑造非基于能力的信心的因素以及当前研究结果的局限性。整个童年时期的成就增长速度越快，预示着对阅读的非基于能力的信心就越强。这些结果强调了以前的经历如何影响人们的自我认知，而不是他们的真实能力。讨论的重点是在整个生命周期内塑造非基于能力的信心的因素以及当前研究结果的局限性。整个童年时期的成就增长速度越快，预示着对阅读的非基于能力的信心就越强。这些结果强调了以前的经历如何影响人们的自我认知，而不是他们的真实能力。讨论的重点是在整个生命周期内塑造非基于能力的信心的因素以及当前研究结果的局限性。