The speed and magnitude of ongoing demographic aging in Japan are unprecedented. A rapid decline in the labor force and a rising fiscal burden to finance social security expenditures could hamper growth over a prolonged period. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model populated by overlapping generations of males and females who differ in participation rate, employment type and labor productivity as well as life expectancy. We study how changes in the labor market over the coming decades will affect the transition path of the economy and fiscal situation of Japan. We find that a rise in the labor supply of females and the elderly of both genders in an extensive margin and in labor productivity can significantly mitigate effects of demographic aging on the macroeconomy and reduce fiscal pressures, despite their negative effects on equilibrium wages during the transition. The study suggests that a combination of policies that remove obstacles hindering labor supply and that enhance a more efficient allocation of male and female workers of all age groups will be critical to keeping government deficit under control and raising income across the nation.

日本人口老龄化的速度和规模是前所未有的。劳动力的迅速减少和增加用于社会保障支出的财政负担可能会长期阻碍经济增长。我们建立了一个动态的一般均衡模型，该模型由人口参与率，就业类型和劳动生产率以及预期寿命不同的几代男性和女性重叠构成。我们研究了未来几十年劳动力市场的变化将如何影响日本经济和财政状况的转型路径。我们发现，男女两性老年人的劳动力供应大量增加，劳动生产率提高，可以显着减轻人口老龄化对宏观经济的影响并减轻财政压力，尽管它们在过渡时期对均衡工资具有负面影响。该研究表明，消除阻碍劳动力供给的障碍并提高所有年龄段男女工人配置效率的一系列政策，对于控制政府赤字和在全国范围内增加收入至关重要。