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Who Should Sign a Professional Baseball Contract? Quantifying the Financial Opportunity Costs of Major League Draftees
Journal of Sports Economics ( IF 1.848 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-05 , DOI: 10.1177/1527002520939615
N. David Pifer 1 , Christopher M. McLeod 2 , William J. Travis 1 , Colten R. Castleberry 1
Affiliation  

Players selected in the annual Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft have a choice of whether to enter the system or pursue a career outside of professional baseball. As with any choice, there are opportunity costs associated with their decision. The purpose of this study was to analyze those opportunity costs by comparing draftees’ expected, non-signing-bonus income to the income of standard laborers. We estimated expected income over the first six seasons of players’ careers by combining minor and major league salary data with the probabilities obtained from C5.0 classification models that were applied to a large set of player-related data. Unlike traditional classification methods that produce the probabilities for landing in one of two classes, C5.0 classification models are able to produce the simultaneous probabilities of a player landing in several different classes, or out of professional baseball, in each season. The results show that, all else equal, college fielders drafted in the first 89–90 picks and college pitchers drafted in the first 32 picks (college graduates) or 171 picks (some college) should sign contracts. Pitchers drafted out of high school should sign contracts if they are picked in the first 78 picks, as should fielders selected in the top 118 picks. Beyond these ranges, signing bonuses or higher levels of performance are needed to limit the opportunity costs of pursuing professional baseball. Such findings are relevant to draftees making contract decisions and baseball stakeholders dealing with recent calls for improved wages and labor conditions in the minors.



中文翻译:

谁应该签署职业棒球合同?量化大联盟征兵人员的财务机会成本

在年度美国职棒大联盟第一年球员选拔赛中被选中的球员可以选择是否进入系统或从事职业棒球以外的职业。与任何选择一样,他们的决定也会涉及机会成本。本研究的目的是通过将被征募者的预期非签约奖金收入与标准劳工的收入进行比较来分析这些机会成本。我们通过将小联盟和大联盟的薪水数据与从C5.0分类模型获得的概率(应用于大量与球员相关的数据集)相结合,来估计球员职业生涯前六个赛季的预期收入。与传统的分类方法不同,它产生了降落在两个类别之一中的概率,C5。0个分类模型能够得出每个季节同时进入几个不同级别或职业棒球之外的球员的同时发生概率。结果表明,在其他条件相同的情况下,前89-90个选秀权中起草的大学外野手和前32个选秀权(大学毕业生)或171个选秀性(某些大学)中起草的大学投手应签订合同。如果高中起初的投手在前78个选秀权中被选中,应与他们签约,在前118个选秀权中被选中的守场员也应签订合同。超出这些范围,需要签约奖金或更高水平的表现来限制追求职业棒球的机会成本。这些发现与草拟合同的草拟人员和棒球利益相关者有关,最近他们呼吁改善未成年人的工资和劳动条件。

更新日期:2020-08-05
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