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True COVID-19 mortality rates from administrative data
Journal of Population Economics ( IF 4.700 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-29 , DOI: 10.1007/s00148-020-00801-6
Domenico Depalo 1
Affiliation  

In this paper, I use administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, the number of infections, and mortality rates from COVID-19 in Lombardia, the hot spot of the disease in Italy and Europe. The information will assist policy makers in reaching correct decisions and the public in adopting appropriate behaviors. As the available data suffer from sample selection bias, I use partial identification to derive the above quantities. Partial identification combines assumptions with the data to deliver a set of admissible values or bounds. Stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions but decrease the credibility of the inference. Therefore, I start with assumptions that are always satisfied, then I impose increasingly more restrictive assumptions. Using my preferred bounds, during March 2020 in Lombardia, there were between 10,000 and 18,500 more deaths than in previous years. The narrowest bounds of mortality rates from COVID-19 are between 0.1 and 7.5%, much smaller than the 17.5% discussed in earlier reports. This finding suggests that the case of Lombardia may not be as special as some argue.

中文翻译:

来自行政数据的真实 COVID-19 死亡率

在本文中,我使用行政数据来估计意大利和欧洲的疾病热点伦巴第大区 COVID-19 的死亡人数、感染人数和死亡率。这些信息将帮助政策制定者做出正确的决定,并帮助公众采取适当的行为。由于可用数据存在样本选择偏差,我使用部分识别来推导上述数量。部分识别将假设与数据相结合,以提供一组可接受的值或界限。更强的假设会产生更强的结论,但会降低推理的可信度。因此,我从始终满足的假设开始,然后施加越来越严格的假设。使用我喜欢的范围,2020 年 3 月在伦巴第,有 10,000 到 18 个,死亡人数比往年多 500 人。COVID-19 死亡率的最窄范围在 0.1% 到 7.5% 之间,远低于早期报告中讨论的 17.5%。这一发现表明,伦巴第的情况可能并不像某些人认为的那样特殊。
更新日期:2020-09-29
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