This article argues that the legal analysis of international investment law and arbitration should focus not on treaties, rules or cases, but on certain conceptual positions on specific questions that act as ‘microdrivers’ of the dynamics of the entire system. The main contention is that the very same investment law architecture may operate very differently as a result of such micro-drivers or, more specifically, of the accretion and alignment of a range of conceptual positions adopted by tribunals and, to a lesser extent, argued by counsel or in academic writings. Such conceptual positions arise in some relatively undefined yet critical areas in the topography of international investment law and arbitration (e.g. the definition of investment, the assessment of the legality of investments, reliance on the economic reality of an investment scheme, the connections between treaty and custom in investment regulation, among many others). Such conceptual variation with respect to relatively undetermined issues is an ordinary occurrence in any body of law. What is, however, noteworthy in international investment law and arbitration is the magnitude of the impact of such minor variations when some of them are aligned. To borrow the suggestive image of the so-called ‘butterfly effect’, it is not just the flapping of a butterfly’s wings that is shaping the system, it is the fact that too many butterflies are flapping their wings in the same direction.

中文翻译：

---

蝴蝶太多？国际投资法体系的微观驱动因素

本文认为，国际投资法和仲裁的法律分析不应侧重于条约、规则或案例，而应侧重于作为整个系统动态的“微观驱动因素”的特定问题的某些概念立场。主要的论点是，由于这种微观驱动因素，或者更具体地说，由于仲裁庭采用的一系列概念立场的增加和调整，同样的投资法架构的运作可能会有很大不同，在较小程度上，争论通过律师或学术著作。这种概念立场出现在国际投资法和仲裁领域中一些相对未定义但关键的领域（例如投资的定义、投资合法性的评估、对投资计划经济现实的依赖、投资监管中条约和习惯之间的联系，等等）。对于相对未确定的问题，这种概念上的变化在任何法律体系中都是常见的。然而，在国际投资法和仲裁中值得注意的是，当其中一些变化一致时，这种微小变化的影响程度。借用所谓的“蝴蝶效应”的暗示性形象，不仅仅是蝴蝶的翅膀在塑造系统，而是太多的蝴蝶在同一方向扇动翅膀。在国际投资法和仲裁中值得注意的是，当其中一些变化一致时，这种微小变化的影响程度。借用所谓的“蝴蝶效应”的暗示性形象，不仅仅是蝴蝶的翅膀在塑造系统，而是太多的蝴蝶在同一方向扇动翅膀。在国际投资法和仲裁中值得注意的是，当其中一些变化一致时，这种微小变化的影响程度。借用所谓的“蝴蝶效应”的暗示性形象，不仅仅是蝴蝶的翅膀在塑造系统，而是太多的蝴蝶在同一方向扇动翅膀。