The forest-based sectors are in a period of significant transition due to climate change mitigation efforts, changes in forest products demand and other external mega-trends. This study applies a three-step Delphi process to identify the main drivers and formulate possible scenarios for the development of the Norwegian forest sector towards 2040. The impacts of these scenarios are analyzed with a partial equilibrium forest sector model covering the Nordic countries. Experts in the sectors expected a further decrease in demand for printing and writing paper, but a significant increase in wood-based biofuel production. A “conservative” scenario, with a prolongation of current trends and no wood-based biofuel production, leads to declining wood prices but still slightly increased harvest levels in the Nordic countries—especially in Norway, due to increased timber volumes available for harvest. In a “green” scenario, the production of wood-based biofuels and new forest products increased, leading to higher wood prices from the end of the next decade. This will further decrease the production of printing paper.

由于减缓气候变化的努力、林产品需求的变化和其他外部大趋势，以森林为基础的部门正处于重大转型时期。本研究采用三步德尔菲法来确定挪威森林部门到 2040 年发展的主要驱动因素并制定可能的情景。这些情景的影响通过覆盖北欧国家的部分平衡森林部门模型进行分析。该行业的专家预计对印刷和书写纸的需求将进一步下降，但木质生物燃料的产量将显着增加。一种“保守”的情景，即当前趋势的延长和不生产以木材为基础的生物燃料，导致木材价格下降，但北欧国家的收成水平仍略有提高，尤其是在挪威，由于可供采伐的木材量增加。在“绿色”情景中，木质生物燃料和新林产品的产量增加，导致未来十年末木材价格上涨。这将进一步减少打印纸的产量。