Natural disasters such as a hurricane can result in massive timber loss in a forested region. Timber prices in the affected region can drop sharply at the beginning and then recover gradually. In this study, the determinants of timber price recovery and the magnitudes of their contributions are analyzed through a partial equilibrium displacement model. Hurricane Hugo of 1989 is used to calibrate the model for pine sawtimber and pulpwood markets separately in South Carolina, USA. The amount of timber inventory loss and intensity of salvage harvests are found to be the leading determinants behind timber price recovery, and they can explain the recovery thoroughly if the uncertainty of model inputs is also considered simultaneously. The impact of curve rotation (i.e., the change in demand or supply elasticity across the quarters) is small and hardly separable from that of model input uncertainty. A potential trade between the damaged and surrounding regions after the hurricane can be used to explain some of the price recoveries, but the amount of trade is likely to be small, especially for pulpwood.

飓风等自然灾害可能导致森林地区大量木材损失。受影响地区的木材价格可能在开始时急剧下跌，然后逐渐恢复。在本研究中，通过部分平衡置换模型分析了木材价格回升的决定因素及其贡献的大小。1989 年的飓风雨果用于校准美国南卡罗来纳州松木锯材和纸浆木市场的模型。木材库存损失的数量和打捞采伐强度被认为是木材价格回升的主要决定因素，如果同时考虑模型输入的不确定性，它们可以彻底解释回升。曲线旋转的影响（即，跨季度的需求或供应弹性变化）很小，并且与模型输入不确定性的变化几乎不可分割。飓风过后受损地区与周边地区之间的潜在贸易可以用来解释一些价格回升，但贸易量可能很小，尤其是纸浆木。