This study examines how natural disturbance can adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of the forest, and the potential contribution that genomics might make towards offsetting these impacts when carbon is priced. A stochastic dynamic programming model of the BC interior, which includes a detailed carbon accounting module, shows that harvests are delayed as carbon prices rise, with less carbon stored in harvested wood products and more in the forest ecosystem, but an increase in the risk of natural disturbance causes the landowner to harvest sooner. As natural disturbance increases in prevalence and severity, this will somewhat offset the lengthening of rotation age that occurs when carbon is priced. With disturbance, the total amount of carbon sequestered falls significantly, but some of this can be recovered through proactive planting of genetically modified (GM) stems that are more productive and less susceptible to disturbance. To make such an investment worthwhile, however, the costs of planting GM stock should not exceed $120–$150/ha. Finally, this study suggests that a modest price of carbon (somewhat less than $25/tCO2) can be an effective incentive to encourage land owners to reduce the rotation age brought about by disturbance, and generate additional carbon offsets.

本研究探讨了自然干扰如何对森林的碳封存潜力产生不利影响，以及基因组学在碳定价时可能对抵消这些影响的潜在贡献。包含详细碳核算模块的不列颠哥伦比亚省内陆随机动态规划模型表明，随着碳价格上涨，收获延迟，收获的木材产品中储存的碳减少，森林生态系统中储存的碳更多，但采伐的风险增加自然干扰导致地主更快地收割。随着自然干扰的发生率和严重程度增加，这将在一定程度上抵消碳定价时轮作年龄的延长。随着干扰，固碳总量显着下降，但其中一些可以通过积极种植转基因（GM）茎来恢复，这些茎的产量更高且不易受干扰。然而，为了使这样的投资物有所值，种植转基因股票的成本不应超过 120 至 150 美元/公顷。最后，本研究表明，适度的碳价格（略低于 25 美元/tCO2）可以有效激励土地所有者减少因干扰而导致的轮作年龄，并产生额外的碳补偿。