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Finding equilibrium in continuous-cover forest management sensitive to interest rates using an advanced matrix transition model
Journal of Forest Economics ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-18 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2018.12.001
Joerg Roessiger , Ladislav Kulla , Michal Bošeľa

Continuous-cover forestry is a management alternative that seeks to provide more diverse forests for continual multi-purpose benefits. Whether there is an economically-optimal equilibrium of uneven-aged forest can be tested deterministically by varying interest rate i. To answer this question, optimisation focused on maximising the net present value for the long-term period was performed using the Subplex algorithm integrated within a density-dependent stand-level matrix transition model. A regular-grid inventory of mixed uneven-aged forests in the West Carpathians, Central Slovakia, was used to parameterise the model. The results showed that a steady state can be reached that is characterised either by a near equilibrium at an i of 1% and higher, or by a continuous fluctuation at an i of 0% and 0.5%. When starting optimisation with a real stand situation with i of 2% and higher, deviations from an equilibrium state appeared both at the beginning and end of the optimisation run. The conclusion is therefore to only interpret the middle-stabilised sequence from the long-term optimisation results as a real equilibrium. Considering the individual target diameter specific for crown size and stem quality of trees within the extended matrix model improved the financial results by 7%. Crown size, representing tree vigour and growth potential, was more important for the improvement of financial results compared to stem quality related to timber price.



中文翻译:

使用高级矩阵转换模型在对利率敏感的连续性森林经营中找到平衡

连续覆盖林业是一种管理选择,旨在为持续提供多用途利益提供更多种类的森林。可以通过改变利率i来确定性地检验不均一年龄林的经济最优平衡。为了回答这个问题,使用集成在密度相关的支架级矩阵转换模型中的Subplex算法执行了专注于使长期净现值最大化的优化。在斯洛伐克中部西喀尔巴阡山脉的常规网格混合的不成熟年龄森林中,对模型进行参数化。结果表明,可以达到一个稳态,其特征是i达到1%或更高时接近平衡,或者在i处达到连续波动。i为0%和0.5%。当以i为2%或更高的实际状况开始优化时,在优化运行的开始和结束时均会出现与平衡状态的偏差。因此,结论是仅将长期优化结果中的中间稳定序列解释为真实平衡。考虑到扩展矩阵模型中特定于树冠大小和树木茎质量的单个目标直径,财务结果提高了7%。与木材价格相关的茎质量相比,代表树木活力和生长潜力的树冠尺寸对于改善财务业绩更为重要。

更新日期:2018-12-18
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