This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic pathways, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. However, the literature on sector-specific narratives outside of the energy and industrial sectors is currently limited, and this paper seeks to build upon existing SSP storylines by elaborating on the potential implications of SSP-related variables on forest resource management, forest product markets, wood-based bioenergy expansion, and other relevant trends in global forestry. The global forestry pathway narratives presented in this paper build on alternative futures research and multi-model inter-comparisons by further developing recent narratives with additional detail on specific issues related to the development and use of our world’s forests.

本文介绍了一系列叙述，可用于定义共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 中全球森林部门可能的未来趋势，我们将其称为森林部门路径 (FSP)。SSP 是气候变化研究界建立的新情景框架的一部分，有助于对未来气候影响、脆弱性、适应和缓解进行综合分析。SSP 基于描述替代社会经济途径的五种叙述，包括可持续发展、区域竞争、不平等、化石燃料发展和中间道路发展。SSP 的长期人口和经济预测描绘了与情景文献一致的广泛不确定性范围。然而，目前关于能源和工业部门之外的特定部门叙述的文献有限，本文试图在现有 SSP 故事情节的基础上，详细阐述 SSP 相关变量对森林资源管理、林产品市场、木材-基于生物能源的扩张，以及全球林业的其他相关趋势。本文提出的全球林业路径叙述建立在替代未来研究和多模型相互比较的基础上，通过进一步发展最近的叙述，并在与我们世界森林的开发和利用相关的具体问题上提供更多细节。林产品市场、以木材为基础的生物能源扩张以及全球林业的其他相关趋势。本文提出的全球林业路径叙述建立在替代未来研究和多模型相互比较的基础上，通过进一步发展最近的叙述，并在与我们世界森林的开发和利用相关的具体问题上提供更多细节。林产品市场、以木材为基础的生物能源扩张以及全球林业的其他相关趋势。本文提出的全球林业路径叙述建立在替代未来研究和多模型相互比较的基础上，通过进一步发展最近的叙述，并在与我们世界森林的开发和利用相关的具体问题上提供更多细节。