We investigate the relationship between a firm’s innovation performance and its probability of bankruptcy. Estimating the discrete hazard model with a comprehensive set of bankruptcies spanning the period of 1980–2009, we find several previously neglected innovation-based variables are important determinants of bankruptcy probability, especially for firms belonging to technology-intensive industries. R&D productivity demonstrates persistent significance across different prediction horizons while the predictive power of patent count becomes larger and more significant at longer prediction horizons. We also find that a firm’s organization capital intensity correlates positively with future bankruptcy.

我们调查了一家公司的创新绩效与其破产概率之间的关系。通过对1980年至2009年期间全面破产的离散风险模型进行估计，我们发现几个先前被忽略的基于创新的变量是破产概率的重要决定因素，特别是对于属于技术密集型行业的公司而言。研发生产力在不同的预测范围内显示出持续的重要性，而专利数量的预测能力在更长的预测范围内变得更大且更重要。我们还发现，企业的组织资本强度与未来的破产呈正相关。