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Parimutuel betting on the eSports duels: Evidence of the reverse favourite-longshot bias
Journal of Economic Psychology ( IF 3.000 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2020.102305
Dmitry Dagaev , Egor Stoyan

We analyse betting behaviour patterns of the visitors of the specialized betting website dedicated to the popular eSports game Counter-Strike: Global Offensive. The reverse favourite-longshot bias is found, which is rather unusual for parimutuel betting markets, where favourite-longshot bias is more common. We define simple betting strategies based on the bets on underdogs and show that these strategies make a sufficiently large positive profit both on the in-sample and out-of-sample datasets, which is a sign of market inefficiency. In matches with popular underdogs, the sentiment bias decreases the market inefficiency caused by the reverse favourite-longshot bias. At the same time, the role of the geographical location of teams in the reverse favourite-longshot bias is only marginal.



中文翻译:

Parimutuel投注电子竞技对决:偏爱远射偏见的证据

我们分析专门针对流行电子竞技游戏《反恐精英:全球攻势》的专业博彩网站访客的博彩行为模式。发现了偏爱-远景偏向的反向现象,这在paretmutuel博彩市场中是很不寻常的,在偏爱投注市场中,偏爱-偏远偏见更为普遍。我们根据对失败者的押注来定义简单的押注策略,并表明这些策略在样本内和样本外数据集上都能产生足够大的正利润,这是市场效率低下的标志。在与受欢迎的弱者的比赛中,情绪偏向降低了由反向偏爱-远景偏向引起的市场低效率。同时,团队的地理位置在偏爱远射偏向中的作用很小。

更新日期:2020-07-30
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