This paper provides an empirical test of the child quantity–quality (QQ) trade-off predicted by unified growth theory. Using individual census returns from the 1911 Irish census, we examine whether children who attended school were from smaller families—as predicted by a standard QQ model. To measure causal effects, we use a selection of models robust to endogeneity concerns which we validate for this application using an Empirical Monte Carlo analysis. Our results show that a child remaining in school between the ages of 14 and 16 caused up to a 27 % reduction in fertility. Our results are robust to alternative estimation techniques with different modeling assumptions, sample selection, and alternative definitions of fertility. These findings highlight the importance of the demographic transition as a mechanism which underpinned the expansion in human capital witnessed in Western economies during the twentieth century.

中文翻译：

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人口转变过程中的人力资本与数量-质量的权衡

本文提供了基于统一增长理论预测的儿童数量-质量（QQ）权衡的实证检验。根据标准QQ模型的预测，我们使用1911年爱尔兰人口普查的个人普查结果，检查了上学的孩子是否来自较小的家庭。为了测量因果效应，我们使用了对内生性问题具有鲁棒性的模型，我们使用经验蒙特卡洛分析对该模型进行了验证。我们的结果表明，一个14岁至16岁之间仍在学校读书的孩子导致生育率降低了27％。我们的结果对于具有不同建模假设，样本选择和生育率替代定义的替代估计技术是可靠的。