The fertility transition that took place in the West from approximately the 1870s to the 1970s is often suggested to have been instrumental for the shift from the post-Malthusian growth regime to the modern growth regime. Constructing a unique data set over the period 1820–2015 for 21 advanced countries, this paper tests whether fertility has had real economic effects through the channels of education, saving, investment and female labor force participation rates. The dairy-cereal price ratio and the pastoral-land ratio are used as instruments for fertility. The results indicate that the fertility transition has been a significant contributor to growth since the 1880s and, consequently, was pivotal for the transition to the modern growth regime.

中文翻译：

---

1870年后的生育率转变是否是20世纪西方经济增长的主要推动力？

人们通常认为，大约从1870年代到1970年代在西方发生的生育率转变对从后马尔萨斯式的增长方式向现代增长方式的转变起到了促进作用。本文针对18个先进国家在1820-2015年间构建了一套独特的数据集，测试了生育率是否通过教育，储蓄，投资和女性劳动力参与率等渠道产生了实际的经济影响。奶牛谷物价格比率和牧地比率被用作生育工具。结果表明，自1880年代以来，生育率转变一直是增长的重要推动力，因此，这对过渡到现代增长机制至关重要。