We develop a dynamic model of the world economy that jointly endogenizes individual decisions about fertility, education and migration. We then use it to compare the short- and long-term effects of immigration restrictions on the world distribution of income. Our calibration strategy replicates the economic and demographic characteristics of the world, and allows us to proxy bilateral migration costs and visa costs for two classes of workers and for each pair of countries. In our benchmark simulations, the world average level of income per worker increases by 12% in the short term and by approximately 52% after one century. These results are highly robust to our identifying strategy and technological assumptions. Sizable differences are obtained when our baseline (pre-liberalization) trajectory involves a rapid income convergence between countries or when we adjust visa costs for a possible upward bias. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the effects of liberalizing migration on human capital accumulation and income are gradual and cumulative. Whatever is the size of the short-term gain, the long-run impact is 4 to 5 times greater (except under a rapid convergence in income).

中文翻译：

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劳动力和世界经济全球化：人力资本的作用

我们开发了一个动态的世界经济模型，该模型共同内生了有关生育，教育和移民的个人决定。然后，我们用它来比较移民限制对世界收入分配的短期和长期影响。我们的校准策略复制了世界的经济和人口特征，并允许我们为两类工人以及每对国家支付双边移民成本和签证费用。在我们的基准模拟中，全球每名工人的平均收入水平在短期内增长了12％，一个世纪后增长了约52％。这些结果对于我们确定战略和技术假设非常有力。当我们的基线（自由化之前）轨迹涉及国家之间的快速收入趋同，或者当我们为可能的向上偏差调整签证费用时，就会获得巨大的差异。我们的定量分析表明，自由化移民对人力资本积累和收入的影响是渐进的和累积的。无论短期收益的大小如何，长期影响都将大4到5倍（除非收入迅速趋同）。