I analyze whether variation in rainfall risk played a role in the demographic transition. The hypothesis is that children constituted a buffer stock of labor that could be mobilized in response to income shocks. Identification relies on fertility differences between farm and non-farm households within counties and over time. The results suggest that in areas with a high variance in rainfall the fertility differential was significantly higher than in areas with a low variance in rainfall. This channel is robust to other relevant forces and the spatial correlation in fertility. The effect disappeared as irrigation systems and agricultural machinery emerged.

中文翻译：

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降雨风险、生育率和发展：来自美国人口转型期间农场定居点的证据

我分析了降雨风险的变化是否在人口转变中发挥了作用。假设是，儿童构成了劳动力的缓冲储备，可以动员起来应对收入冲击。识别依赖于县内和随着时间的推移农场和非农场家庭之间的生育差异。结果表明，在降雨量变化较大的地区，肥力差异显着高于降雨量变化较小的地区。该通道对其他相关力量和生育率的空间相关性具有鲁棒性。随着灌溉系统和农业机械的出现，这种影响消失了。