This article investigates the long-run impact of a migration barrier on regional development. The analysis is based on the large-scale expulsion of Germans from Central and Eastern Europe after World War II (WWII). Expellees were not allowed to resettle in the French occupation zone in the first years after the War while there was no such legislation in the other occupation zones (USA; UK; Soviet Union). The temporary migration barrier had long-lasting consequences. In a nutshell, results of a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) analysis show that growth of population and population density were significantly lower even 60 years after the removal of the barrier if a region was part of the French occupation zone. There was a common trend in regional development before the migration barrier became effective. Further analyses suggest that this pattern is driven by different population dynamics in agglomerated areas. The article discusses implications for spatial theory namely whether location fundamentals, agglomeration theories or both affect the spatial equilibrium under certain conditions.

中文翻译：

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移民限制与长期区域发展：来自二战后大规模驱逐德国人的证据

本文研究了移民障碍对区域发展的长期影响。该分析基于第二次世界大战（WWII）后从中东欧大规模驱逐德国人。战后最初几年，法国占领区不允许被驱逐者重新定居，而其他占领区（美国；英国；苏联）则没有此类立法。暂时的迁移障碍产生了长期的后果。简而言之，Difference-in-Difference (DiD) 分析的结果表明，如果一个地区是法国占​​领区的一部分，那么即使在隔离墙移除 60 年后，人口增长和人口密度也会显着降低。在移民壁垒生效之前，区域发展有一个共同的趋势。进一步的分析表明，这种模式是由聚集区不同的人口动态驱动的。本文讨论了对空间理论的影响，即在特定条件下，区位基础、集聚理论或两者是否会影响空间平衡。