This paper assesses whether gross capital inflows to the Philippines are expansionary or contractionary in view of the model predictions and multi-country empirical analysis of Blanchard, Ostry, Ghosh, and Chamon (BOGC, 2015). We make use of data for the period 1977–2017, and apply both ordinary least squares and vector autoregressive techniques. The results indicate that total gross inflows are expansionary for both output and credit growth. At a more disaggregated level, we find, consistent with BOGC (2015), that non-bond inflows are expansionary. But contrary to BOGC (2015), we find that bond inflows to the Philippines are also expansionary. Using the Philippine case illustrates the importance of country specific factors in characterizing the macroeconomic effects of capital inflows.

本文根据Blanchard，Ostry，Ghosh和Chamon的模型预测和多国经验分析，评估了流入菲律宾的总资本流入是扩张性的还是收缩性的（BOGC，2015年）。我们利用1977-2017年期间的数据，并应用普通最小二乘法和向量自回归技术。结果表明，总的总流入量对于产出和信贷增长都是扩张性的。从更细分的角度来看，我们发现与BOGC（2015）一致，非债券流入具有扩张性。但是与BOGC（2015）相反，我们发现流入菲律宾的债券也是扩张性的。以菲律宾为例说明了特定国家因素在表征资本流入的宏观经济影响方面的重要性。