ABSTRACT

The recent rise of digital technology has enabled the development of various online platforms that gave rise to the so-called sharing economy. Academics suggest that this economy is causing a switch in consumer behaviour. This paper attempts to test this hypothesis by fitting a smooth transition autoregressive model to the cycle of the proportion of e-commerce to personal consumption in the U.S. between 1999 and 2019. The analysis reveals that the sharing economy, driven by the diffusion of digital technology, is causing consumption to transition smoothly, but frequently, between two regimes between 1999 and 2013. In the later period, however, it displays a stable regime due to the slow diffusion of digital technologies over this period. We conclude that, indeed, the sharing economy is causing a regime switch in consumption, and the dynamic behaviour of this regime switching is consistent with the behaviour of the diffusion process of digital technologies.

摘要

数字技术的最新兴起使得各种在线平台的发展成为可能，从而引发了所谓的共享经济。学术界认为，这种经济正在引起消费者行为的转变。本文试图通过对1999年至2019年间美国电子商务与个人消费所占比例的周期进行平滑过渡的自回归模型来检验该假设。分析表明，在数字技术扩散的推动下，共享经济会导致消费在1999年至2013年之间在两种体制之间平稳但频繁地转换。但是，在此后一段时间，由于数字技术在此期间的缓慢传播，它显示出稳定的体制。我们得出结论，确实，共享经济正在引起消费体制的转变，