ABSTRACT

The significant role of government consumption in affecting economic conditions raises the necessity for monetary policy to take into account the behaviour of fiscal policy and to also take into account how the presence of the fiscal sector might affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the economy. To test for this, we build an otherwise standard New Keynesian model that incorporates non-separable government consumption. The simulations of the model show that when government consumption has a crowding-in effect on private consumption, it will dampen the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and vice versa. The empirical estimations of the paper also support the theoretical findings of the model, as the panel regressions show that, in OECD countries, government consumption dampens the effect of the policy rate on private consumption. These results are robust to the zero lower bound era.

摘要

政府消费在影响经济状况中的重要作用使得货币政策必须考虑到财政政策的行为，也必须考虑到财政部门的存在如何影响货币政策在经济中的传导机制。为了对此进行测试，我们建立了另外一个标准的新凯恩斯主义模型，其中包含了不可分割的政府消费。该模型的仿真表明，当政府消费对私人消费产生拥挤效应时，它将抑制货币政策的传导机制，反之亦然。本文的经验估计也支持该模型的理论发现，如面板回归显示，在OECD国家，政府消费抑制了政策利率对私人消费的影响。这些结果对于零下限时代是可靠的。