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Regional convergence under declining population: The case of Japan
Japan and the World Economy ( IF 1.703 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-03 , DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2020.101023
Shin-ichi Fukuda , Koki Okumura

Using regional data from Japan, we examine how population growth affected regional convergence in Japan, where population decline has become conspicuous in several regions. The basic equation in the analysis allows two distinct features that previous studies rarely explored. First, we allow the coefficient of initial per capita output to change when the growth rate of population is lower than a threshold value. Second, we allow the growth rate of population to have ambiguous effects on the growth rate of per capita output. Our estimation results confirm the convergence hypothesis in Japan. However, we find that the declining speed of convergence was more conspicuous in the regions that had negative population growth. We also find that the decline in population growth, which was irrelevant for regional economic growth before 1995, came to have harmful impacts on regional economic growth after 1995. We believe this occurred because in societies with declining populations, economies of agglomeration had more significantly disappeared in poorer regions than in richer regions.



中文翻译:

人口减少下的区域趋同:以日本为例

使用来自日本的区域数据,我们研究了人口增长如何影响日本的区域趋同,在日本,一些地区的人口下降趋势十分明显。分析中的基本方程式具有两个独特的特征,以前的研究很少探讨。首先,当人口增长率低于阈值时,我们允许改变人均初始产出系数。第二,我们允许人口增长率对人均产出增长率产生模糊影响。我们的估计结果证实了日本的收敛假设。但是,我们发现,在人口增长为负数的地区,收敛速度的下降更为明显。我们还发现,人口增长的下降与1995年之前的区域经济增长无关,

更新日期:2020-07-03
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