This study employed prospect theory to examine relationships between effort invested in developing financial forecasts and risk taking. Results of an experimental study indicated that the more effort subjects invested in developing forecasts, the more likely they were to use those forecasts as their reference points when evaluating venture performance. Results also indicated that subjects who used forecasts as their reference points and exerted greater effort developing those forecasts were more likely to take risky actions when performance fell below their reference points. This study is the first to link effort to the type of reference point used and the first to link effort and the use of financial forecasts to risky decisions. In addition, it is one of only a few studies to employ prospect theory to examine risk taking decisions subsequent to start-up. Its results enhance our understanding of risk taking, prospect theory and reference points.

本研究采用前景理论来检验为制定财务预测所投入的努力与风险承担之间的关系。一项实验研究的结果表明，受试者在制定预测方面投入的努力越多，他们在评估风险绩效时就越有可能使用这些预测作为参考点。结果还表明，使用预测作为参考点并为制定这些预测付出更多努力的受试者更有可能在表现低于参考点时采取冒险行动。这项研究是第一个将努力与所使用的参考点类型联系起来的研究，也是第一个将努力和财务预测的使用与风险决策联系起来的研究。此外，它是为数不多的使用前景理论来检查启动后的风险承担决策的研究之一。其结果增强了我们对风险承担、前景理论和参考点的理解。