What drives recoveries after financial crises? I address this question for the 1870–1913 “first era of globalization,” focusing on whether trade policy changes or positive movements in commodity prices played a bigger role in stimulating output growth after financial crises in peripheral economies. At this time before governments had modern fiscal and monetary policy tools to use while responding to crises protectionism was one of the few national-level policy options available for shaping economic activity. Improving terms of trade is another major factor that could influence output growth in the commodity-exporting countries included in this analysis. While previous studies of this period have looked at longer-run associations between these explanatory variables and economic growth, I focus on the aftermath of crises, and find that tariff rate increases had a positive impact on GDP per capita growth, while positive terms of trade changes did not have a significant effect on output growth. This suggests that governments played a substantial role in shaping post-crisis recoveries during this period.

是什么导致金融危机后复苏？我针对1870年至1913年的“全球化的第一个时代”解决这个问题，重点关注贸易政策的变化或大宗商品价格的积极变动在刺激外围经济危机后，在刺激产出增长方面发挥了更大的作用。在政府在应对危机时可以使用现代财政和货币政策工具之前，保护主义是可用于塑造经济活动的少数几个国家级政策选择之一。贸易条件的改善是可能影响该分析所包括的商品出口国产出增长的另一个主要因素。虽然这段时期的先前研究着眼于这些解释性变量与经济增长之间的长期关联，但我关注的是危机的后果，并发现关税税率上升对人均GDP增长有积极影响，而积极的贸易条件变化对产出增长没有显着影响。这表明在此期间，政府在塑造危机后的复苏中发挥了重要作用。