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Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany
Explorations in Economic History ( IF 1.857 ) Pub Date : 2019-09-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2019.101305
Volker Daniel , Lucas ter Steege

A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inflation expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inflation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.



中文翻译:

通货膨胀预期和德国大萧条的复苏

朝着提高通货膨胀预期的政权转变被认为是从美国大萧条开始的复苏开始。在1930年代经历了同样成功的经济好转的德国,通胀预期发挥了什么作用?我们通过多种方法研究德国经济复苏中的通胀预期:我们对媒体来源进行叙述性研究;我们通过因子增强的矢量自回归模型,实际利率预测和定量新闻系列估算通胀预期。在这些方法中,我们始终没有发现预期通胀会增加。这种复苏是不同的,其原因在于其他地方。

更新日期:2019-09-24
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