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Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the Latin Monetary Union*
European Review of Economic History ( IF 1.706 ) Pub Date : 2018-01-17 , DOI: 10.1093/ereh/hex027
Jacopo Timini 1, 2
Affiliation  

The Latin Monetary Union (LMU) agreement signed in December 1865 by France, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland standardised gold and silver coinage in member countries and allowed free circulation of national coins in the Union. In his seminal study, Flandreau (2000) found no evidence of an overall positive effect of the LMU on trade. In this paper, I estimate the effects of this currency agreement on trade. In my gravity model I explicitly take into account the changing conditions in the international environment that affected the LMU’s underlying economic foundations (i.e. the limits on silver coinage agreed upon in 1874) and its rules (i.e. the “liquidation clause” of 1885). I also test the existence of heterogeneous effects on bilateral trade within the LMU. In line with Flandreau, I find no significant LMU trade effects. However, I find support for the hypothesis that the LMU had significant trade effects for the period 1865-1874. These effects were nonetheless concentrated in trade flows between France and the rest of the LMU members, following a hub-and-spokes structure. Moreover, I find evidence for the existence of an 1874 “LMU-wide” structural break, which affected the course of trade flows within the Union.

中文翻译:

货币联盟和异构贸易影响:拉丁美洲货币联盟*

法国,意大利,比利时和瑞士于1865年12月签署的拉丁货币联盟(LMU)协议对成员国中的金银硬币进行了标准化,并允许本国硬币在该联盟中自由流通。在Flandreau(2000)的开创性研究中,没有发现LMU对贸易产生总体积极影响的证据。在本文中,我估计了这种货币协定对贸易的影响。在我的引力模型中,我明确考虑了影响LMU基础经济基础(即1874年商定的银币限额)及其规则(即1885年的“清算条款”)的国际环境的变化。我还测试了LMU内部对双边贸易的异质性影响。与Flandreau一致,我认为LMU贸易不会产生重大影响。然而,我发现关于LMU在1865-1874年期间具有重大贸易影响的假设的支持。尽管如此,这些影响主要集中在法国和其他LMU成员之间的贸易流通中,遵循的是轮辐式结构。此外,我发现有证据表明存在1874年的“整个LMU”结构性断裂,这影响了联盟内部的贸易流向。
更新日期:2018-01-17
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