We provide a natural resource explanation for the divergence of the Portuguese economy relative to other European countries before the Second World War, based on a considerable body of contemporary sources. First, we demonstrate that a lack of domestic resources meant that Portugal experienced limited and unbalanced growth during the age of steam. Imports of coal were prohibitively expensive for inland areas, which failed to industrialize. Coastal areas developed through steam, but were constrained by limited demand from the interior. Second, we show that after the First World War, when other coal-poor countries turned to hydro-power, Portugal relied on coal-based thermal-power, creating a vicious circle of high energy prices and labor-intensive industrialization. We argue that this was the result of (i) water resources which were relatively expensive to exploit; and (ii) path-dependency, whereby the failure to develop earlier meant that there was a lack of capital and demand from industry.

中文翻译：

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蒸汽时代没有煤炭，电力时代没有水坝：这是第二次世界大战前葡萄牙未能工业化的一种解释

我们以大量的当代资源为基础，为第二次世界大战前葡萄牙经济相对于其他欧洲国家的差异提供了自然资源的解释。首先，我们证明，缺乏国内资源意味着葡萄牙在蒸汽时代经历了有限且不平衡的增长。煤炭进口对于内陆地区来说是过高的，内陆地区未能实现工业化。沿海地区通过蒸汽发展，但受到内部需求有限的限制。第二，我们表明，第一次世界大战后，当其他煤炭匮乏的国家转向水力发电时，葡萄牙依靠煤炭为基础的火力发电，造成了高能源价格和劳动密集型工业化的恶性循环。我们认为这是由于（i）水资源开发相对昂贵的结果；（ii）路径依赖，即较早发展的失败意味着行业缺乏资本和需求。