Based on the first estimates of output growth, this article shows that Egyptian industrial output grew at an accelerating rate in the interwar period and the country joined the industrial catch-up club after the Great Depression. What characterized the industrial re-composition was the major shift from export-processing and home-demand oriented sectors to the import competing textiles. That was in turn driven by the combined forces of massive terms of trade shock, tariff protection and stagnant incomes. Crucially, the panel-data analysis of disaggregated growth patterns indicates that the effect of tariff protection on growth was much smaller than usually assumed in the historiography.

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两次世界大战之间埃及的工业增长：初步估计，新见解

根据对产出增长的初步估计，本文显示，在两次世界大战期间，埃及的工业产出以加速的速度增长，该国在大萧条之后加入了工业追赶俱乐部。工业重组的特征是从出口加工和面向家庭需求的行业向进口竞争性纺织品的重大转变。反过来，这是由大量贸易条件冲击，关税保护和收入停滞的综合力量所驱动的。至关重要的是，对分类增长模式的面板数据分析表明，关税保护对增长的影响远小于通常的史学假设。