This paper analyses the effects of two recent reforms introduced in Italy in 2010 and 2011 in an attempt to reduce prison overcrowding. The first, introduced by the law no. 199 of 2010 on house arrest for prisoners with final conviction. The second, passed by the decree law no. 211 of 2011 on house arrest for criminals arrested awaiting trial. The results of econometric analysis prove that these reforms have achieved the objective to reduce the overcrowding of prisons in the short run, but in the long run they contribute to exacerbating the problem. A strong link was found between the several kinds of crime and the total number of prisoners. The two reforms seems to be positively correlated with property crimes (a pickpocketing and home thefts), but not with violent crimes. Finally, the impact of the changes introduced in the condition to be eligible to access at house arrest, has a negative impact on welfare.

中文翻译：

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减少意大利监狱过度拥挤的近期立法措施：对监狱经济影响的初步评估

本文分析了2010年和2011年在意大利推出的两项旨在减少监狱人满为患的改革措施的效果。第一，由法律介绍。2010年第199号，对最终定罪的囚犯进行软禁。第二，通过第16号法令通过。2011年第211号因逮捕待审罪犯而被软禁。计量经济学分析的结果证明，这些改革在短期内已达到减少监狱人满为患的目标，但从长远来看，它们有助于加剧这一问题。在几种犯罪与囚犯总数之间发现了密切的联系。两项改革似乎与财产犯罪（扒窃和家庭盗窃）正相关，但与暴力犯罪无关。最后，