This paper aims to consider the meaning of the dismal theorem, as presented by Martin Weitzman [(2009) On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Review of Economics and Statistics91, 1–19]. The theorem states that a standard cost–benefit analysis breaks down if there is a possibility of catastrophes occurring. This result has a significant influence on debates regarding the economics of climate change. In this study, we present an intuitive similarity between the dismal theorem and the St. Petersburg paradox using a simple discrete probability distribution.

中文翻译：

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从圣彼得堡悖论到惨淡定理

本文旨在考虑由 Martin Weitzman [(2009) 对灾难性气候变化的经济学建模和解释提出的令人沮丧的定理的含义。经济与统计评论91, 1-19]。该定理指出，如果有可能发生灾难，标准的成本效益分析就会失效。这一结果对有关气候变化经济学的辩论产生了重大影响。在这项研究中，我们使用简单的离散概率分布呈现了令人沮丧的定理和圣彼得堡悖论之间的直观相似性。