ABSTRACT

This paper develops a Melitz-style trade model to consider how trade policy uncertainty (TPU) affects the export mode of heterogeneous firms. With the reduction of TPU, firms are more likely to engage in ordinary exports, and the proportion of ordinary exports relative to processing exports increases. This effect is more pronounced for firms with medium productivity. Based on highly disaggregated product-level trade data and firm-level production data, this paper adopts econometric methods to empirically identify the impact of TPU on heterogeneous firms’ choice of export mode, which provides robust evidence for the prediction of the theoretical model. This paper also puts forward some policy implications.

摘要

本文开发了一个 Melitz 式的贸易模型，以考虑贸易政策不确定性 (TPU) 如何影响异质企业的出口模式。随着TPU的降低，企业更可能从事普通出口，普通出口相对于加工出口的比例增加。这种影响对于中等生产力的企业更为明显。本文基于高度分解的产品级贸易数据和企业级生产数据，采用计量经济学方法实证识别TPU对异质企业出口模式选择的影响，为理论模型的预测提供了有力的证据。本文还提出了一些政策启示。