This paper presents a water-restricted multi-regional input–output model to evaluate the economic impacts of water supply reductions in the Canadian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), one of the largest freshwater reservoirs in the world. The proposed model, first of its kind applied to the GLB, aims to minimize the impact of water supply disruptions on the GLB-economy, measured by the loss of GDP. A new flexible economic optimization procedure is introduced, capable of imposing resource constraints and ensuring minimal supply levels for intermediate and final consumption at the same time. The model accounts for inter-regional trade between different lake regions. The impacts of two climate change scenarios on water security and the economy are investigated, with and without additional food and energy security restrictions. The proposed economic optimization model holds promise as a new tool for resource-restricted Input–Output analyses.

本文提出了一种水资源受限的多区域投入产出模型，以评估加拿大五大湖盆地 (GLB) 供水减少的经济影响，该盆地是世界上最大的淡水水库之一。提议的模型首次应用于 GLB，旨在最大限度地减少供水中断对 GLB 经济的影响，以 GDP 的损失来衡量。引入了一种新的灵活经济优化程序，能够施加资源约束并同时确保中间和最终消费的最低供应水平。该模型考虑了不同湖区之间的区域间贸易。研究了两种气候变化情景对水安全和经济的影响，无论是否有额外的粮食和能源安全限制。