ABSTRACT

This study investigates a fundamental issue of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling: are CGE models reliable for measuring the economic consequence analysis of disasters? We assess the outputs of CGE analyses after controlling for various modeling factors such as data, type of model, and modeling mechanisms via a meta-analysis of 253 CGE simulations in 57 empirical studies. Our study arrives at three major findings. First, we confirm that resilience significantly reduces business disruptions from disasters. Second, results using either real-world or hypothetical data tend to vary substantially by hazard type. Third, results are quite sensitive to model assumptions and modeling structure. Overall, we suggest that future impact assessments of disasters should be conducted more cautiously in terms of adopting appropriate data, models, and shock scenarios, in order to improve the validity of CGE modeling outcomes.

摘要

这项研究调查了可计算一般均衡（CGE）建模的一个基本问题：CGE模型对于衡量灾难的经济后果分析是否可靠？我们通过对57个实证研究中253个CGE模拟的荟萃分析，控制了各种建模因素（例如数据，模型类型和建模机制）之后，评估了CGE分析的输出。我们的研究得出三个主要发现。首先，我们确认弹性可以极大地减少灾难带来的业务中断。其次，使用实际数据或假设数据得出的结果往往因危害类型而有很大差异。第三，结果对模型假设和模型结构非常敏感。总体而言，我们建议应采用适当的数据，模型，