Paid parental leave has become an increasingly important part of family policy in OECD countries: by 2004 on average over a year of leave paid at 59% of average wages was provided. Australia's Paid Parental Leave (PPL) scheme was introduced in 2011 and provides 18 weeks of leave paid at the full time minimum wage for the primary carer of a child. Prior to the scheme, federal and state legislation provided paid maternity leave for most state and federal employees. We estimate the effect of access to paid parental leave on women's fertility desires and intentions by exploiting the differential impact of the scheme for women working in the public and private sectors. We find that the announcement of the scheme had no impact on fertility desires or intentions at the extensive margin but that, conditional on intending to have at least one (more) child, the number of children intended increases by 0.28, a 13% increase. This effect is driven by highly educated women who do not already have children. As it has been shown that fertility intentions predict fertility outcomes, these results suggest that even modest paid parental leave programs can increase the fertility of working women and so moderate the declines in fertility rates seen in many developed countries.

中文翻译：

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带薪育儿假对生育意愿的影响*

在经合组织国家，带薪育儿假已成为家庭政策中越来越重要的一部分：到 2004 年，平均提供超过一年的带薪产假，其薪水为平均工资的 59%。澳大利亚的带薪育儿假 (PPL) 计划于 2011 年推出，为儿童的主要照顾者提供 18 周的全职最低工资带薪假期。在该计划之前，联邦和州立法为大多数州和联邦雇员提供带薪产假。我们通过利用该计划对在公共和私营部门工作的妇女的不同影响来估计获得带薪育儿假对妇女生育愿望和意图的影响。我们发现该计划的宣布对生育愿望或意图没有广泛影响，但是，以打算生育至少一个（更多）孩子为条件，打算生育的孩子数量增加了 0.28 个，增加了 13%。这种影响是由尚未生育的受过高等教育的女性推动的。正如已表明生育意图可以预测生育结果一样，这些结果表明，即使是适度的带薪育儿假计划也可以提高职业女性的生育率，从而减缓许多发达国家生育率的下降。