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The impacts of oil price shocks in Turkey: sectoral evidence from the FAVAR approach
Economic Change and Restructuring ( IF 1.708 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-05 , DOI: 10.1007/s10644-020-09295-4
Uğur Akkoç , Anıl Akçağlayan , Gamze Kargın Akkoç

This paper investigates the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Turkish economy from 2005:01 to 2018:04 using a relatively new technique: the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach. The findings indicate the importance of crude oil prices to inflation, sectoral growth, and monetary policy. The main results of the impulse response analyses are as follows: (1) Oil price shocks did not explain changes in industrial production growth or its subsectors; (2) the responses of different price indices to positive oil price shocks are statistically significant and persistent. The largest number of price increases occurs in the transportation and food and beverage sectors; (3) monetary policy does not respond to oil price shocks. One can claim that the interest rate does not respond to oil price and allow the prices to adjust. Afterward, the price adjustment neutralizes the production effects of the oil price shocks.



中文翻译:

土耳其油价冲击的影响:来自 FAVAR 方法的部门证据

本文使用一种相对较新的技术:因子增强向量自回归 (FAVAR) 方法,研究了 2005:01 至 2018:04 期间原油价格冲击对土耳其经济的影响。调查结果表明原油价格对通货膨胀、部门增长和货币政策的重要性。脉冲响应分析的主要结果如下: (1) 油价冲击没有解释工业生产增长或其子行业的变化;(2) 不同价格指数对油价正冲击的反应在统计上显着且持续。涨价幅度最大的是交通运输和食品饮料行业;(3)货币政策不应对油价冲击。人们可以声称利率不会对油价做出反应并允许价格进行调整。之后,

更新日期:2020-09-05
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