This paper investigates empirically the fertility rebound in low- and high-income OECD countries for the period 1970 to 2016. The focus is on the turning points of the rebound for the two country groups. We estimate the turning points in terms of GDP per capita, labour productivity, and female labour force participation. Results suggest that the rebound, (1) is statistically significant for low- and high-income OECD countries in terms of GDP per capita and labour productivity, (2) is present for female labour force participation mostly for the higher income country group and, (3) differences in the turning points are minimized for the two country groups when labour productivity is considered. Labour productivity emerges as the most important economic driver for the fertility rebound.

本文对1970至2016年低收入和高收入OECD国家的生育率反弹进行了实证研究。重点是两个国家群体的反弹转折点。我们根据人均GDP，劳动生产率和女性劳动力参与程度来估计转折点。结果表明，反弹（1）在人均国内生产总值和劳动生产率方面在低收入和高收入经合组织国家中具有统计学意义；（2）在女性劳动力参与中占多数，而在较高收入国家组中，并且（3）在考虑劳动生产率时，两个国家组的转折点差异最小。劳动生产率已成为推动生育率回升的最重要经济驱动力。