ABSTRACT The real exchange rates of the currencies of non-Eurozone countries are determined to a large extent by the behavior of the euro, because intra-EU trade accounts for a large proportion of the countries’ balances of payments. Given that their currencies and the euro are also influenced by the EUR/USD exchange rate and oil price changes, the tripolar model appears to provide an appropriate analytical framework. The empirical results of this study support the hypothesis that in the long run the euro-dollar and Polish zloty-euro exchange rates are driven by crude oil prices, and that the parities of the real risk-free interest rates determine the euro-dollar exchange rate in the short-run and the zloty-euro exchange rate in the long-run. They also show that in recent years the euro-dollar exchange rate was long influenced by the ECB’s asset purchase program. The impulse response analysis clearly indicates that in addition to shocks from credit default risk premiums and interest rates innovations oil price shocks too are a significant and pervasive source of the nonstationary dynamics of the exchange rates.

中文翻译：

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实际汇率、油价溢出效应和三极化

摘要 非欧元区国家货币的实际汇率在很大程度上取决于欧元的行为，因为欧盟内部贸易占各国国际收支的很大比例。鉴于它们的货币和欧元也受到欧元/美元汇率和石油价格变化的影响，三极模型似乎提供了一个合适的分析框架。本研究的实证结果支持了欧元兑美元和波兰兹罗提欧元汇率长期受原油价格驱动，实际无风险利率的平价决定欧元兑美元汇率的假设短期的汇率和长期的兹罗提-欧元汇率。他们还表明，近年来欧元兑美元汇率长期受到欧洲央行资产购买计划的影响。脉冲响应分析清楚地表明，除了来自信用违约风险溢价和利率创新的冲击之外，石油价格冲击也是汇率非平稳动态的一个重要而普遍的来源。