This paper shows that the eurozone payment system does not effectively protect member states from speculative attacks. Suspicion of a departure from the common currency induces a terminal outflow of central bank money in weaker member states. TARGET2 cannot inhibit this drain but only protects central bank assets. Evidence presented here suggests that a run on Italy is already on the way. The paper also considers departure strategies of strong and weak member states and the distributive effects of an orderly eurozone dissolution.

中文翻译：

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欧元区投机性袭击和离场策略

本文表明，欧元区支付系统不能有效保护成员国免受投机攻击。怀疑偏离通用货币会导致较弱的成员国的中央银行资金最终外流。TARGET2不能抑制这种消耗，而只能保护中央银行的资产。这里提供的证据表明，意大利的竞选已经在进行中。本文还考虑了强弱成员国的退出策略以及欧元区有序解散的分配效应。