ABSTRACT

Do input–output linkages of intermediate products affect the spread of sectoral shocks at the aggregate level in Lithuania, a small and open economy? What role does openness play in the empirical exercise? We answer these questions by: (i) constructing the Lithuanian input–output transactions tables with domestic-only and domestic and imported sector-by-sector direct requirements, and (ii) applying Acemoglu, Carvalho, Ozdaglar, and Tahbaz-Salehis [(2012). The network origins of aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 80(5), 1977–2016] network-based methodology and Gabaix and Ibragimov's [(2011). Rank-1/2: A simple way to improve the ols estimation of tail exponents. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 29(1), 24–39] modified log rank-log size regression. Our results indicate that the structure of input–output linkages cause aggregate economic volatility to decay at a rate lower than the established theoretical prediction. Indirect linkages play an equally important role for both domestic-only and aggregated domestic and import transactions.

摘要

中间产品的投入-产出联系是否会在一个小而开放的经济体立陶宛总体上影响部门冲击的扩散？开放性在实证研究中起什么作用？我们通过以下方式回答这些问题：（i）构造立陶宛投入-产出交易表，其中仅针对国内以及国内和进口逐部门直接要求；（ii）应用Acemoglu，Carvalho，Ozdaglar和Tahbaz-Salehis [[ 2012）。总体波动的网络起源。Econometrica，80（5），1977–2016]基于网络的方法论以及Gabaix和Ibragimov的[（2011）。等级1/2：一种改善尾部指数的ols估计的简单方法。商业和经济统计杂志，29（1），24–39]修改了对数秩-对数大小回归。我们的结果表明，投入产出联系的结构导致总体经济波动性以低于既定理论预测的速度衰减。间接联系对于仅国内贸易和合计的国内和进口交易都起着同等重要的作用。