Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

中文翻译：

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驾驭能源转型：2040 年后的石油

最近的技术发展和过去的技术转型表明，世界可能正处于交通技术深刻变革的边缘。电动汽车的回归及其采用，就像 20 世纪初用机动车辆代替马一样，可能会在未来几十年大幅减少石油消耗。我们的分析表明，作为运输主要燃料的石油的剩余寿命可能比通常假设的要短得多。在快速采用的情况下，到 2040 年代初，石油价格可能会趋于煤炭价格水平，即 2015 年价格每桶约 15 美元。在这个可能的未来，石油可能成为新的煤炭。