Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro‐critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross‐country International Monetary Fund (IMF) study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 per cent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage points in the year of the disaster. The paper also discusses a multi‐pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.

中文翻译：

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增强太平洋小国对自然灾害和气候变化的宏观经济适应力

自然灾害和气候变化是相互关联的宏观关键问题，在不同程度上影响着所有太平洋小国。这些事件除了造成毁灭性的人力成本外，还损害了增长前景并恶化了各国的财政状况。这是国际货币基金组织（IMF）进行的第一项跨国研究，评估了自然灾害对整个太平洋岛屿增长的影响。面板向量自回归（VAR）分析表明，对于相当于GDP的1％的破坏和损失，灾难年份的增长下降了0.7个百分点。本文还讨论了在国家，区域和多边各级增强自然灾害抵御能力的多支柱框架，以及增强国家风险管理能力的重要性。