This article provides a framework to estimate the potential effects and benefits of the provision of market information in storable commodity markets. This framework is applied to the case of production forecasts for the soybean market. A rational expectations storage model of the global soybean market accounting for both inter‐annual and intra‐annual market dynamics is built. Shocks that occur between planting and harvesting affect the size of the potential harvest. Estimates of the size of these shocks are reported publicly and affect the market equilibrium through adjustments to stock levels. By varying counterfactually the observability of seasonal shocks, we can estimate the efficiency gains related to the availability of advance information. They are equivalent to 2% of storage costs; the reduction of stock levels being the main channel explaining the welfare gains. The presence of advance information has a limited effect on inter‐annual price volatility but redistributes price volatility during the season, increasing it just before harvest when almost all news has been received and stocks are tight and decreasing it after harvest. The effect of news shocks is stronger on higher order moments of the distribution with a strong decrease in skewness and kurtosis related to the lower frequency of price spikes.

中文翻译：

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可储存商品市场中公共信息的价值：在大豆市场中的应用

本文提供了一个框架来估计在可储存商品市场中提供市场信息的潜在影响和收益。该框架适用于大豆市场的产量预测案例。建立了考虑年际和年内市场动态的全球大豆市场理性预期存储模型。种植和收获之间发生的冲击会影响潜在收获的大小。对这些冲击规模的估计会公开报告，并通过调整库存水平来影响市场均衡。通过反事实地改变季节性冲击的可观察性，我们可以估计与预先信息的可用性相关的效率增益。它们相当于存储成本的 2%；库存水平的降低是解释福利收益的主要渠道。预先信息的存在对年际价格波动的影响有限，但会重新分配季节期间的价格波动，在收获前几乎所有消息都已收到且库存紧张时增加，收获后减少。新闻冲击对分布的高阶矩的影响更强，偏度和峰度的显着下降与价格峰值的较低频率相关。